A ceasefire in Gaza appears less likely following additional demands by Hamas and the shelling of Israeli troops in Israel. Wage growth in April was its lowest since June 2021, which should mean less inflation. However, the Cleveland Federal Reserve predicts the upcoming headline April CPI inflation reading will be a disappointingly high 3.5% year/year, the same as March. The Yen fell 5% in April, then bounced 5% since then. There’s been no event, so the best we can say is as long as people can borrow at 1% in Yen and invest at 6% in US Dollars, the currency will go down. But a Big Mac in Japan is 12% cheaper than a Big Mac in China, while Japanese incomes are 6x higher than Chinese ones. It’s not possible for a developed market to have emerging market prices forever.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

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